Special Guest Paul Traub of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Detroit Branch)

Our Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association luncheon was held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Detroit Branch) Mr. Traub explains some issues with our current recovery and how quick we could recover. Mr. Traub’s Blog address is http://michiganeconomy.chicagofedblogs.org/ His latest post is below

Posted on January 9, 2013 by Paul Traub
Michigan’s economic growth improved slightly in November, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s MEI Index for Michigan. The index remained below zero, indicating that growth is still below Michigan’s long-term average, but it increased to -0.04 in November from –0.09 in October. Manufacturing’s contribution to the index turned positive again following two months of decline. The most favorable change was the positive contribution from the construction sector, marking the first positive contribution to the index from construction since September 2005.

Michigan’s per capita income rose by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2012 on a year-over-year basis, although this increase was slightly smaller than in the second quarter. Based on data through the third quarter of 2012, Michigan’s GSP is estimated to be growing at a 0.8% pace relative to 2011. Most of this growth is due to positive contributions from manufacturing. Such positive developments should stimulate Michigan’s economic growth through the end of the year.

Other key indicators include:
Michigan’s unemployment rate declined to 8.9% in November from 9.1% in October;
• Michigan’s housing market is showing some minor improvement, which may be an indication that the housing sector is on the mend; and
• U.S. light vehicle sales remained strong in December, helping to drive Michigan’s light vehicle production for 2012 to its highest level in in five years.

For a more detailed look into the numbers behind Michigan’s current economic performance, follow the link to the Chicago Fed’s Michigan MEI — 201301.

 

Paul Traub of the Federal Reserve Bank

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